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CFTC Warns, GOLD/SILVER Spikes?

Posted by Karl Denninger

Hmmmm….

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)–The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued a warning to the market on Friday to remind participants that speculative trading limits apply throughout the trading day as well as at the end of trading.

Timestamp, 11:15 Central time

Now let’s look at two charts.

You don’t think that GOLD was being speculatively shorted beyond intraday position limits, do you?  That oval, by the way, is right when the announcement was made.

Or shall we look at SILVER?

Naw, there’s no evidence that “someone” (or a few someones) were breaking the law here, is there?

Nobody would ever close out unlawfully-held shorts after being warned by the CFTC, would they?

“My Son..Went Inside There And Basically Saw that the Vault was Empty.”

Every day when I think I am going to get a day off from this story, some revelation seems to be come out, each as compelling, shocking, and suspicious as the others, but all fitting together in what looks like a nasty picture of reckless behaviour gone wrong developing.

Apparently some banks and brokers had been selling gold and silver which they do not have. We know it happens because Morgan Stanley was caught doing it, and was even charging storage fees from unsuspecting investors.

Do these banks not have auditors? Are the regulators sweeping this under the rug? Are the insiders and their spokespeople correct in just dismissing this as a problem, as was done with the subprime market even by Ben Bernanke himself before it collapsed into a bank run that shocked the financial system?

Now, we have to carefully distinguish between allocated metal, in which one holds a certificate and are assured of a firm ownership of actual metal, and an unallocated holding in which you hold basically a paper claim on metal, for which you may be an unsecured creditor, even if you are paying regular storage fees. But in the cases I am hearing about it is a firmly stated ownership of something that does not exist, and cannot be obtained at current prices.

This is important because although there is always shorting, and some fractional reserve aspect to all banking , even in the case of bullion banking, in this case the proportion or leverage of the selling of the assets starts to look more like a Ponzi scheme than a rational and efficient market. There is a point at which ‘speculation’ becomes fraud, and the fraud becomes large enough to start risking the health of the bank.

And in our under-regulated and excessively leveraged financial system, that becomes a problem because it all looks to be a pyramid scheme of sorts. JPM alone is holding derivatives with notional values approaching a very large portion of World GDP.

The banks seem to be pointing to bullion supplies elsewhere, such as the LBMA in London, or in this case Hong Kong, and saying, “See if certificate holders demand their bullion, we can easily fulfill their requests.” The problem with this is that it appears that they are ALL doing this, overleveraging their supplies, becoming counterparties and potential sources of supply to each other, with few having a full supply of what they say they have.

King News World Interview Regarding Lack of Physical Bullion at Large Canadian Bank

Make what you will of this. I don’t understand what they are saying about the Bank of Nova Scotia as the only bullion storage facility. There are several. CEF and Central Gold Trust store their bullion at CIBC as I recall. And Sprott stores their gold at the Royal Canadian Mint. This may seem like a small point, but its important. It is also important to understand what is stated by the bank on the certificate that you hold. As outlined above, you might just be an unsecured creditor to an unallocated account. There is no fraud in that, only a risk of actual delivery should you ever ask for it.

I am sure more will be coming out, eventually. But for now this information is barely penetrating the radar of the mainstream media. These fellows may be wrong, but so far no one is denying specifically what they are saying with any persuasive proof. They just seem to be hiding behind secrecy and opaque transactions, saying ‘Prove it, prove it.’

As I have stated before, the problem I have with this is the lack of transparency and auditing in these markets, which makes them absolutely ripe for fraud and excessive leverage by the usual suspects in the TBTF banks.

This seems to be exactly what caused the subprime crisis and the bank run in 2008: a lack of liquidity and the mispricing of risk. How can one not be suspicious? We have just seen it happening, even though the herd behaviour is to simply ignore it because it is too alarming, too inconvenient.

Let the truth come out. Let justice be done.

Have we learned nothing? What time is the next bailout?

Is The Metals Market A Ponzi Scheme?

Posted by Karl Denninger

The stories are certainly gaining credibility – and volume.

There have long been claims that the “paper gold” market is wildly manipulated.  Certainly it does trade 100x or more the physical market, but this, standing alone does not prove manipulation.  Have a look at the number of contracts that trade against physical oil, wheat, soybeans or corn.  You’ll find that in each of these cases there are a lot more contracts than bushels or barrels.

But the recent allegations go further.  Now there is a document out on Zerohedge that makes the claim that the US Government has been involved in a massive and outrageous fraud – that is, the “creation” of fake gold bars that are in fact tungsten with a gold veneer on top.  We’re not talking about a “few” bars either.  The allegation is that ten thousand metric tons of fake bars are in fact in circulation – right now – and that our government was the one that caused it to happen.

Huffington Post has picked this up too, but unfortunately the author is a hard-core “gold is money and you need to buy a lot of it right now” guy.  Not exactly the most unbiased source…. and, if he (or his fund) is long a massive amount of the yellow stuff and smells deflation, well, “price support” suddenly becomes rather important.

A big part of the problem here is the insane amount of secrecy that surrounds what should be a completely-transparent market and reserves.  The US, for example, allegedly has a lot of gold at Fort Knox.  Is it really there – and is what’s actually there really of the quality claimed?  How do you know?

I’m a contrarian on the impact that would flow from proof being delivered that the US Gold stock was all tungsten bars with gold plating on top.  Many claim this would cause an instant explosion in price and collapse of the dollar. 

I disagree.

Discovery that the metals market has been “polluted” to the point of irrelevance would mean that those around the world who had bought and were holding alleged gold bars that in fact aren’t gold had tendered good money for nothing.  This would be a monstrous deflationary event – after all, the definition of deflation is the destruction of money, and that’s exactly what would have happened, just as if you took a stack of $100 bills and burned them in your back yard.  To the extent that sovereigns were unknowingly duped this could have enormous consequences, especially if, as is alleged, the fraud is traceable to direct and intentional action taken by the US Federal Government.

I’m in the camp that extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof, and a fuzzy video on Youtube claiming to be a sectioned gold bar – with no visible mint marks or serial numbers – doesn’t cut it for me.

If there is such a fraud on the scale claimed and it has in fact been discovered there are literally thousands of people who know about it.  While many of them have every reason to keep their mouth shut (it’s their money that was vaporized by the fraud!) there are a lot of others who have every reason to stand up and shout.  So far, other than a handful of very self-interested parties, nobody is.

As they say, “show me the money” – or as is more appropriate in this case, “show me the tungsten.”

Don’t Invest In Ridiculously-Rigged (And Thin) Markets

Posted by Karl Denninger

Janet Tavakoli has written an interesting piece over at Huffington Post related to the gold market and a potential cornering attempt:

First, let your greed overcome all regard for the stability of the global market, and overcome your aversion to illegal activities.

….

Pump up the gold story. Get your friends to tell retail investors to buy some gold every month. Get your buddies in the financial business to offer exchange traded gold funds (ETFs) that claim to buy physical gold. This will sound safe to retail investors, but in fact, the ETFs are very risky. This will serve your purpose when you are ready to start a panic. These particular ETFs will allow the “gold” to be commingled with the custodian’s gold, and the custodian can lease out the gold. Moreover, the “gold” custodian can give it to a sub custodian that the manager doesn’t know. The sub custodian can give it to yet another sub custodian unknown to the original custodian. The manager will never audit the gold, and the gold is not “allocated” to a particular investor. Since this is an “exchange traded” gold fund, investors will probably assume the gold is regulated by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), but it isn’t. By the time investors wake up to the probability that there is very little actual gold backing their investment, your plan will be ready to execute.

That could be a problem, right?

Zerohedge has run a piece of alleged manipulation of the market (specifically, selling short an insane number of contracts – which would obligate you to deliver – when you have no possible way to do so.)  This, however, isn’t necessarily manipulation per-se, nor is the assertion that these are “financial” (that is, we trade ‘em for money, not to actually buy or sell physical gold) assets false.  They in fact are; if I sell short a S&P 500 Futures Contract I can assure you that I do not deliver a basket of 500 stocks to the buyer if I’m right (or wrong!)

However, the elements of a scam – which could be the intended outcome – are indeed present.  The person buying or selling a futures contract can have either the intent of actually taking (or making) physical delivery or they can be a pure speculator on price, intending to execute the opposite trade prior to expiration (and thus pocketing either a profit or a loss thereupon.)  So long as the person executing a futures trade is required to post margin on all underwater positions nightly (and provided the market is honest, they are) the “pressure” on them as the market moves the wrong way tends to force correction toward the mean – and is counter-cyclical against imbalances.

But the buyer of an ETF is likely in a different circumstance.  Unlike the sophisticated speculator (like me) who buys and sells futures contracts on things like the S&P 500, currencies, gold and even oil without the intent to take delivery of a thousand barrels of crude in my driveway (that would be kinda messy, especially if the barrels were not included – and they’re not!) many if not most ETF purchasers are under the belief that they are buying actual physical gold or silver that someone is holding for them in a vault somewhere. 

The problem, of course, is that the so-called “gold” might not actually exist. 

For a futures contract with a time-certain expiration this is not a terribly-large problem, since the “discovery date” of the seller’s inability to produce (should you buy a contract and actually notice delivery) has a date on it by which you may demand (and expect) perfected delivery of an actual gold bar.  If there’s a “fail” there the results would be both dramatic and immediately-recognized.

ETFs are a different matter entirely.  These commonly are held for years, dramatically beyond the expiration cycle of the futures markets.  They also are often bought and held by people who believe they are actually holding metal – that is, as a hedge against things like currency debasement or even geopolitical collapse.

What happens if Janet’s scenario is correct?

Panic, that’s what.  A global market meltdown in which a handful of huge banks (who are very, very short in the futures market) suddenly get assigned for delivery – and yet they don’t have, and cannot acquire, enough physical gold to make delivery, because their open interest (in aggregate) exceeds the free supply available to trade.

This bankrupts these large dealers.  It also bankrupts the ETFs, who suddenly are “discovered” as having “leased” out all their gold – that is, they’re holding worthless paper promises to replenish their depository written by someone who has unfortunately become insolvent.

The “gold bugs” (those who hold physical metal) are of course very happy by this course of events, as the “spot” price would go to the moon – instantly.

Is this what’s going on?

Who knows. 

It certainly is the allegation and the number of people running stories that lead you to this conclusion over the last few months has reached a fever pitch.

But before buying into this story on either side be aware that when this was attempted by the Hunt Brothers with silver (and it was nearly the same path that Janet outlines in her article) the CFTC and other “regulators” in the market came in and changed the rules.  The danger here can be extreme, as most people with physical metal (the only people who will benefit if there is a monstrous spike in price – if you’re holding an ETF you will in fact likely get nothing!) cannot dispose of it fast enough to take advantage before the inevitable collapse on the back side of the cornering attempt occurs.

When the Hunt Brothers attempted this silver went from $11/oz to nearly $50 in less than four months – but two months later it had collapsed to below the original $11 price, with much if it happening in a literal single day.

I’ll stay away from this one – the criminals have proved that they can intentionally falsify the valuation of trillions of dollars in “assets” on balance sheets and otherwise cheat with wild abandon, but nobody will bring charges.  There is no reason to believe that you or I will be the ones who are able to get through the tiny little door if indeed this is the game that is being run, and every reason to believe that instead of the starry-eyed profits you dream of you will instead suffer a monstrous loss.

I’ll instead grab my  and watch the pretty fireworks.

The Fallacy of Gold Backed Money

To download a printable version, click on The Fallacy of Gold Backed Money

Bill Still – The Still Report, Why Gold Money Won’t Work Part I (5:47):

Bill Still – The Still Report, Why Gold Money Won’t Work Part II (9:59):

Good morning, worker drones: This Week in Mayhem

by Project Mayhem

Project Censored releases top censored news stories of 2009, Market Skeptics highlights catastrophic fall in global food production, gold bounces off $1100, Copenhagen succeeds in building global governance framework, Pakistan and Yemen sink further into chaos..

LAST WEEK IN MAYHEM

Project Censored releases list of 25 censored news stories of the past year

* 1. US Congress Sells Out to Wall Street
* 2. US Schools are More Segregated Today than in the 1950s
* 3. Toxic Waste Behind Somali Pirates
* 4. Nuclear Waste Pools in North Carolina
* 5. Europe Blocks US Toxic Products
* 6. Lobbyists Buy Congress
* 7. Obama’s Military Appointments Have Corrupt Past
* 8. Bailed out Banks and America’s Wealthiest Cheat IRS Out of Billions
* 9. US Arms Used for War Crimes in Gaza
* 10. Ecuador Declares Foreign Debt Illegitimate
* 11. Private Corporations Profit from the Occupation of Palestine
* 12. Mysterious Death of Mike Connell—Karl Rove’s Election Thief
* 13. Katrina’s Hidden Race War
* 14. Congress Invested in Defense Contracts
* 15. World Bank’s Carbon Trade Fiasco

http://www.projectcensored.org/top-stories/category/two-thousand-and-ten-book/

2010 Food Crisis for Dummies

The countries that make up two thirds of the world’s agricultural output are experiencing drought conditions.

The following article is HIGHLY recommended for anyone trading in the commodities futures markets or interested in possible future outcomes in 2010.

“If you read any economic, financial, or political analysis for 2010 that doesn’t mention the food shortage looming next year, throw it in the trash, as it is worthless. There is overwhelming, undeniable evidence that the world will run out of food next year. When this happens, the resulting triple digit food inflation will lead panicking central banks around the world to dump their foreign reserves to appreciate their currencies and lower the cost of food imports, causing the collapse of the dollar, the treasury market, derivative markets, and the global financial system. The US will experience economic disintegration.

So far the crisis has been driven by the slow and steady increase in defaults on mortgages and other loans. This is about to change. What will drive the financial crisis in 2010 will be panic about food supplies and the dollar’s plunging value. Things will start moving fast.”

http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/12/2010-food-crisis-for-dummies.html

Gold bounces off $1100

Gold has bounced off $1100, as expected, but the question  is whether this level will hold.  This is almost impossible to predict…what we do know is that gold is going much higher intermediate-term.  Short-term, we could see pricing pressures on gold until we get a new leg down in the economic crisis and/or war in Central Asia.  Things are heating up around the world, particularly in Yemen and Pakistan.  Regardless, we expect a hard floor for the gold price in the range of $1000-1050.  We will watch carefully for the next two business weeks leading into Jan 1st, as this will involve year-end mark-to-market for gold on many balance sheets so expect volatility.  In terms of the next year (2010) we are expecting a dollar crisis so it would be wise to own gold under such circumstances.

Tarpley – Hyperinflation possible in 2010
http://eclipptv.com/viewVideo.php?video_id=9059

Gerald Celente – 2010 – Prepare for the Worse
http://eclipptv.com/viewVideo.php?video_id=9060

Copenhagen Treaty yields start of Global Governance

The Copenhagen treaty was a success despite the massive scientific scandal; the global bankster-gangsters got precisely what they wanted.  The objective was to establish the framework for a world government, which is often called ‘global governance’ in policy planning circles. The seeds of this were successfully planted.  There were two main accomplishments at Copenhagen:  1) agreement on a global transaction tax on GDP, paid to the World Bank  and 2) agreement on preliminary funding for global governance, conservatively $100bn by 2020 but we believe this number will be much much higher (probably in trillions).

“In 2004, it was less than $300 million. But in 2005, the trade really started to soar, ending the year with $10.8 billion-worth of transactions. A year later, in 2006, the “carbon” market had grown to $31 billion. In 2007, again it more than doubled its turnover, to $64 billion. Last year, it did it again, reaching a colossal $126 billion. By 2020, some estimates suggest the annual value will reach $2 trillion.”

http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2009/12/protecting-big-carbon.html

“This is the biggest heist in history. As they poured carbon over snow-covered Denmark from their gas-guzzling jets, world leaders were congratulating themselves on securing a deal which will make their backers and financiers a trillion pounds a year. These riches will come from buying and selling permits, the so-called ‘carbon credits’ which allow industry and electricity generators in developed countries to emit carbon dioxide.

The frenzied negotiations we have just seen were never about ‘saving the planet’. They were always about money.”

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1237235/ANALYSIS-Saved–trillion-pound-trade-carbon.html

Copenhagen accord keeps Big Carbon in business

“The part played at Copenhagen by all the tree-huggers, abetted by the BBC and their media allies, was to keep hysteria over warming at fever pitch while the politicians haggled over the real prize, to keep the Kyoto system in place.

The only tree they were concerned with hugging was the money tree and all the vast political apparatus that now supports it, allowing governments to tax and regulate us into handing over ever more of our money, largely without realising it, every time we drive a car, fly in a plane, pay our electricity bill or carry out any of a vast range of activities that involve the emission of CO2. ”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/6845686/Copenhagen-accord-keeps-Big-Carbon-in-business.html

Saudis rain missiles down on Yemen

Saudi warplanes rain ’1,011 missiles’ on Yemen
“Houthi fighters say Saudi warplanes have fired some 1,011 missiles on the borderline with Yemen where the Shia population is already under heavy state-led and US-aided bombardment. “

http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=114162&sectionid=351020206

US air raids kill 63 civilians in Yemen
“Yemen’s Houthi fighters say scores of civilians, including many children, have been killed in US air-raids in the southeast of the war-stricken Arab country.”
http://dprogram.net/2009/12/19/us-air-raids-kill-63-civilians-in-yemen/

Obama Ordered U.S. Military Strike on Yemen Terrorists
“The Yemen attacks by the U.S. military represent a major escalation of the Obama administration’s campaign against al Qaeda.”

Pakistan on brink ;  Obama feigns surprise

Internally displaced Pakistani women and children, aka alQueda

Pakistan continues to deteriorate, as we have been expected since the election of Obama.  There is definitely a new war brewing in the region.  The most likely conflict is either an event justifying going into Pakistan, or an event justifying going into Iran.  In either case, doing so would land us in deep deep trouble, and would escalate into a regional war.  Pakistan is a nuclear-armed country, with ballistic and cruise missiles, and Iran has advanced Russian weaponry.  War in either country would be a big mistake with catastrophic consequences for the world, but our fearless leaders do not seem to care about the people of the world or their lives.  Regardless, the CIA and ISI are doing an excellent job of destabilizing Pakistan, which seems to be the policy objectiive.

Pakistan political crisis deepens

“THE political crisis in Pakistan has deepened after the Government’s anti-corruption agency sought a warrant for the arrest of the country’s Interior Minister.”

http://www.theage.com.au/world/pakistan-in-crisis-as-creeping-coup-unfolds-20091219-l6lf.html

Symptom of a Deeper Malady Pakistan’s Refugee Disaster

In the meantime, with the winter months fast approaching, hundreds of thousands of “unintegrated” refugees who do not find more durable shelter, even as military sweeps continue, could face exposure and starvation. Some aid groups are demanding that the United States pressure Pakistan to respect international humanitarian law and allow independent access to the refugees.

THIS WEEK IN MAYHEM

source: cmegroup

Not much happening this week due to the Christmas holiday. Tuesday brings us the GDP number and existing home sales, Wednesday is new home sales, and Thursday is durable goods orders and jobless claims.  This week we are watching Yemen and Pakistan.

Have a great week and Merry Christmas

Project Mayhem Research (PMR) is a DC/Baltimore-based grassroots think tank dedicated to exposing corruption worldwide. PMR is affiliated with Zerohedge.com, a popular and growing anti-corruption site, through contribution of free articles for the public. Topics include the politics of war and weapons systems, unexpected applications of cybernetics, the growing international surveillance state, global warming ‘deindustrialization’ economics, broad systemic international corruption , in-depth policy analysis of studies from bank and military funded research groups, genetic analysis and surveillance of pandemic influenza, corruption in the international gold market, the power structure and history of the global elite, and analysis of their political objectives expressed through monopolistic international finance capital (read: powerful banks) between now and 2050.

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