Archive for the ‘Job Losses’ Category
Unemployment: Report Says Jobs Hole Could Persist For A Decade (CHART)
July 20th, 2010 | 
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The U.S. Senate’s epic struggle just to reauthorize unemployment benefits for the long-term jobless suggests that policymakers in Washington fundamentally don’t understand the jobs hole we’re in, according to a team of trained economists.
The progressive Center for Economic and Policy Research reports that it could take an entire decade for the national unemployment rate to come down to pre-recession levels.
“Between December 2007 — the official first month of the recession — and December 2009, the U.S. economy lost more than eight million jobs,” write CEPR’s John Schmitt and Tessa Conroy. “Even if the economy creates jobs from now on at a pace equal to the fastest four years of the early 2000s expansion, we will not return to the December 2007 level of employment until March 2014.
“And, by the time we return to the number of jobs we had in December 2007, population growth will have increased the potential labor force by about 6.5 million jobs. If job growth matched the fastest four years in the most recent economic expansion, the economy would not catch up to the expanded labor force until April 2021.”
Here’s a dramatic chart from CEPR showing the total number of jobs lost since the recession began:
Click HERE to see even more horrifying charts.
Welcome back, Mr. President … Your Economic Policies Suck
Las Vegas, NV
President Obama is in Las Vegas, where he’s holding an invitation-only fundraiser for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, among other closed-door events.
The president is welcome; he should be courteously received.
That said, it’s too bad the president isn’t planning to mingle with average Nevadans and visit our shopping centers incognito, to get a look at what his economic policies have really wrought — what a city with 14.1 percent (official, understated) unemployment looks like, under an administration whose main economic goals seem to be the punishment and prevention of capital formation and business growth.
The president might have gotten an earful, here at ground zero of the Great Recession.
While “Obamacare” doesn’t go into full effect for four more years, taxes to support it kick in this fall, starting with a 10 percent tanning salon tax (why?) and a “1099″ tax that’s projected to suck an additional $17 billion out of private businesses in the next decade by making them file “1099″ snitch forms for virtually everyone to whom they pay a few hundred dollars.
Is that likely to help Nevada’s economy rebound, President Obama? Won’t it drive even more business “under the table,” where workers have less protection, illegal aliens thrive and many continue to draw welfare while paying no taxes at all?
Speaking of illegals, your administration just sued our neighbor to the southeast, Arizona, for enacting a state law that instructs local police to help enforce federal immigration law — despite the fact the Supreme Court ruled in 1976 that federal immigration law doesn’t intend “to preclude even harmonious state regulation.”
What’s the political message of this cynical lawsuit? That some 12 million illegals should feel safe continuing to occupy jobs that U.S. citizens have flocked to fill whenever they’ve had a chance, presumably. Just wait for the Democrats to grant you amnesty, invite in your extended family and send you all Democratic voter registration cards — as soon as the heat of November’s mid-term elections has passed — is that it?
Is that supposed to help Nevada’s unemployed and the local businesses they can no longer patronize?
What about “cap and trade” and your carbon tax, still promoted by you and your legislative ramrod, Sen. Reid, even after much of the basis for worrying about climate change has been shown to be a hoax?
Your administration admits this legislation will artificially drive up power bills and other energy costs. Mr. President, is that supposed to help cash-strapped Nevada firms create new jobs? If it causes air fares and gasoline prices to soar, will that help bring the tourists back to Las Vegas?
And a “VAT” or add-on national sales tax — is that next?
If the 2008 economic correction had been allowed to proceed without interference, mal-invested firms would have been forced to liquidate in bankruptcy. The buildings where new entrepreneurs might like to open would have passed into new hands, and could now be leased at far lower rates. Instead, many structures in Las Vegas now stand empty, owned by banks or by the FDIC or by “walking dead” owners who dare not rent out the premises at lower rates lest their overdue notes be called. It’s a weird economic limbo, and it’s not helping.
Why so many costly bailouts, Mr. President? Why so much bypassing of America’s fine bankruptcy courts? Was it because your union supporters objected to what might happen to their contracts, which helped sink firms like General Motors? Is that why you intervened to arrange for the government and the unions to take over that firm? How many other industries will now be taken over? We already know about health care. The banks, too?
And speaking of unions, is “card check” still in play? The prospect that workplaces could be unionized without a worker secret-ballot majority — that’s supposed to encourage local business investment and growth?
Meantime, the inflation caused by all this spending keeps prices and wages artificially high. Is that supposed to help?
Nevadans have a long tradition as hard-working frontier entrepreneurs. Nevadans would rather have a real, private-sector job than a handout. How many of your high-level appointees have any experience creating such jobs, Mr. President? Do you see that as a problem?
Posted in Barack Obama, Economic Crisis, Economy, Job Losses, Unemployment, health care reform, taxes | 
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June Jobs: Immigrants Displacing American Workers…Again
By Edwin S. Rubenstein
President Obama’s July 1 speech reaffirming his commitment to “comprehensive immigration reform” a.k.a. amnesty completely ignored unemployment, needless to say.
But unemployment is not ignoring him and his Administration. The June employment data, released the next day, were bad—and immigrant displacement of American workers appears to have resumed with a vengeance.
Nonfarm payrolls shrank by 125,000 in June. After adjusting for the downsizing of government census takers and other public sector jobs, the June job count was up by 83,000.
Even that is disheartening: the median forecast from economists and economic forecasting firms was that the U.S. would add 110,000 private-sector jobs.
The economy needs to add about 130,000 to 150,000 jobs a month just to keep pace with new workers entering the market (still including, incredibly, an estimated 40,000 immigrants). The labor pool is already overflowing with about 15 million unemployed job seekers.
The average duration of unemployment is now 35.2 weeks. A year ago it was 24.4 weeks.
The “other” labor survey, of households rather than businesses, was even more downbeat. It reported a June job loss of 301,000. Here is the action for the month:
- Total employment: -301,000 (-0.22 percent)
- Hispanic employment: -99,000 (-0.50 percent)
- Non-Hispanic employment: -202,000 (-0.17 percent)
Our measure of native labor displacement, the VDARE.COM American Worker Displacement Index (VDAWDI), uses Hispanics as a proxy for immigrants because some 40% of them are immigrants, retreated to 125.7 in June from 126.1 in May:
VDAWDI is calculated like this:
- For every 100.0 Hispanics employed in January 2001 there were 123.2 in June 2010
- For every 100.0 non-Hispanics employed in January 2001 there were 98.0 in June 2010
- June’s VDAWDI equals 125.7 (=100 X 123.2/98.0)
We’ve always said Hispanic employment is an imperfect proxy for our primary interest: foreign-born employment and its implications for job prospects of native-born workers. In recent months the employment report has (finally!) begun tracking foreign- and native-born workers. The data are not seasonally adjusted, making month to month comparisons tricky. But we can compare this June with last June:
| Employment Status by Nativity, June 2009-June 2010 | ||||
| (numbers in 1000s; not seasonally adjusted) | ||||
| Jun-09 | Jun-10 | Change | % Change | |
| Foreign born, 16 years and older | ||||
| Civilian population | 35,258 | 36,155 | 897 | 2.5% |
| Civilian labor force | 24,135 | 24,688 | 553 | 2.3% |
| Employed | 21,787 | 22,541 | 754 | 3.5% |
| Unemployed | 2,348 | 2,148 | -200 | -8.5% |
| Unemployment rate (%) | 9.7 | 8.7 | -1.0 | -10.3% |
| Not in labor force | 11,123 | 11,467 | 344 | 3.1% |
| Native born, 16 years and older | ||||
| Civilian population | 200,397 | 201,535 | 1,138 | 0.6% |
| Civilian labor force | 131,786 | 130,079 | -1,707 | -1.3% |
| Employed | 119,039 | 117,342 | -1,697 | -1.4% |
| Unemployed | 12,747 | 12,737 | -10 | -0.1% |
| Unemployment rate (%) | 9.7 | 9.8 | 0.1 | 1.0% |
| Not in labor force | 68,611 | 71,456 | 2,845 | 4.1% |
| Source: BLS, “The Employment Situation – June 2010,” July 2, 2010. Table A-7.PDF | ||||
In other words, over the past 12 months:
- Foreign-born employment rose by 754,000, or 3.5%; natives lost 1,697,000 positions—a drop of 1.4%.
- The immigrant unemployment rate fell by 1.0 point, to 8.7%; native unemployment rose 0.1 point, to 9.8%.
- The immigrant labor force grew by 2.3%; the native labor force shrank 1.3% – a sign of discouragement.
This suggests that our VDAWDI measure has actually understated the displacement impact of immigration.
It occurs to us that the absence of seasonal adjustment does not negate the validity of month to month comparisons, so long as the bias affects native and foreign-born workers equally. After all, our interest is not just economics but fairness—i.e., how native workers fare relative to their foreign-born counterparts.
That said, June was particularly bad for native-born workers:
| June Job Trends: Foreign- v Native-born | ||||
| May ’10 | June ’10 | Change | % change | |
| Employment (mils.) | ||||
| Foreign-born | 22,125 | 22,541 | 416 | 1.88% |
| Native-born | 117,372 | 117,342 | -30 | -0.03% |
| Unemployment rate (%) | ||||
| Foreign-born | 8.6 | 8.7 | 0.1 | 1.16% |
| Native-born | 9.5 | 9.8 | 0.3 | 3.16% |
| Not seasonally adjusted. | ||||
While (seasonally unadjusted) foreign-born employment rose 416,000, or nearly 2 percent, native-born employment declined by 30,000 in June. Native unemployment rose by 0.3 points, while foreign-born unemployment was up by 0.1 point.
Overarching everything is the burgeoning population gap between these groups. Over the past year the foreign-born population of working age rose 2.5%—more than four-times the 0.6% rate for natives.
It’s interesting that June appears to have been a relatively poor month for Hispanics but a very good one for foreign-born workers. One possibility: native-born Hispanics are losing out to foreign-born Hispanics.
Why shouldn’t Hispanics get to share in this quintessentially American experience—being displaced by immigrants?
Edwin S. Rubenstein (email him) is President of ESR Research Economic Consultants in Indianapolis.
The Clock Is Running (Out)
By Karl Denninger
Debra Rousey of Gainesville, Georgia, says that she received an unemployment check of $194 last week, half the usual amount she receives, along with a letter announcing that this check would be her last. She is now in a complete panic over what to do next.
Welcome to a thing called “reality.”
“I’m desperate and devastated,” she told HuffPost. “I didn’t get any warning. I was barely making ends meet on $330 a week, trying to diaper my grandchild and put food on the table for the four people I support. What do I do now? How am I going to make rent next month? I keep thinking, ‘If I end up in a cardboard box, can I find one big enough for everybody, or do I have to send my son to live with someone else?’”
Ok, let’s think here. Four people you support? One is a grandchild (where’s Dad – if not Mom?); who are the other four?
Since Rousey, 45, was laid off from her job as a branch manager for Suntrust bank in November, she says she has been “frantically looking” for a job — everything from entry-level marketing positions to a fry cook job at McDonalds — but hasn’t had an interview in months. As of tomorrow, she will be one of nearly 1.7 million people whose unemployment benefits have prematurely expired while Congress sits on legislation that would renew those benefits.
How long did you have that job and how much did you save of your income during that time? Little – or zero? It sounds like it. This situation, incidentally, is why that’s a bad idea.
Rousey is currently pursuing a master’s degree in adult education through an online program, and her son, 17, and her 25-year-old daughter are also full-time students. She said all three of them are desperate for work.
How is the school being paid for? And the 25-year old – how long has she been in school?
“They cut off my Internet and cable about five minutes ago, and my landlord is already calling,” she said. “I don’t have time to wait for Congress to extend these benefits. I’m drowning fast.”
Oh, I see. And in November, when you lost your job, the Internet and Cable (which is likely $100 a month or so) was not something you cut off proactively to conserve funds? Why not?
Got a cell phone? What’s the monthly nut on that?
Diapers are expensive in packages. Cloth ones are cheaper. Yes, they’re less convenient – a lot less convenient. I remember buying the packages of Pampers for my daughter. If I had been broke, cloth it would be.
What’s your electric bill? Did the AC get cut off in November too, or has it been blasting away all spring and summer? Was your heat set at “Jimmy Carter” levels over the winter months, or was it a nice toasty 72F inside?
November -> June is six months during which the standard 26 weeks of unemployment (that you do pay into via taxes and premiums that are assessed on your employer) ran.
The rest is a handout.
Over those six months this individual appears to have made no adjustments of materiality to compensate for the fact that she lost her income. Now she’s in a panic and is looking for someone to blame.
Notice that nowhere in that article is even the first hint of accepting responsibility for not cutting back on significant discretionary purchases when the job was lost and attempting to stretch every dollar as far as it could possibly go.
I empathize with this woman’s dilemma, but here’s the problem: We (the government, the people) don’t have the money to keep doing this.
Yes, I also recognize that we squandered an awful lot of money, but those funds are gone. Take it out on whoever you’d like for those acts. I did my level damndest to stop it, and failed. We gave money to GM, we gave money to Chrysler, we gave money to AIG, we gave money to foreign banks. Both republican and democrat administrations did this, including President Barack Obama who, I remind everyone voted for TARP along with a number of other pork-laden bills.
Nearly three years ago I recommended that the government fund and put aside $200 billion in actual cash to provide emergency shelter and food for up to 25% of the population for as long as 12-24 months. I was entirely serious, although I’m sure that many Congressmen and women who got my faxed letter perceived me to be absolutely insane. My recommendation was to be prepared to provide “three hots and a cot” on closed military bases or unused parts of active facilities for this purpose. These would not be “luxury accommodations” or even trailers – we’re talking literally “three hots, a cot, hot water to shower with and flush toilets.” That’s all.
The simple fact of the matter is that huge swaths of America literally have saved nothing. They have been goaded into borrowing amounts that in some cases exceed their annual earnings. Most of these people are literally one hiccup in their income stream away from utter destitution.
Yes, much of it (if not all of it) is their own fault. They have saved nothing. They run $100 cable TV and Internet bills, and another $100 for “smart” cellphone service – each and every month. They have their financed car(s) on which they must maintain full coverage insurance (instead of a “moving jalopy” that is paid for, worth little, and on which one only needs liability insurance at 1/4 the cost.) They’re entitled to a 75 degree house in the winter or summer, even if it generates a $300 electric bill. They believe they’re entitled to student loans to go to college (instead of refusing to attend until the colleges get costs in check) further damaging their economic futures.
This state of affairs did not come about in an afternoon and it can’t be fixed in one either. We cannot allow people to starve, but we also cannot continue to fund handouts as we have. The money simply is not there.
We need to figure out how to live in a nation with a forty percent smaller GDP than we now have. Yes, 40%. That means you, I, everyone else. The “living large” game is over. All Ponzi Schemes ultimately collapse – they do not go quietly into the night. The collapse is brutal, it’s quick, it’s efficient and it’s devastating to anyone caught in it.
Every time.
These are facts, not fantasies.
If you are not prepared today, you need to become so by tomorrow.
Incidentally, yesterday would have been better.
There are some things we can do to help though, and they don’t cost much money at all.
One of them is to kick out the 20 million+ illegal invaders who are consuming resources of all sorts – including taking jobs that Americans could be doing. The non-institutional working-age population (of legal residents and citizens) has gone from 230.6 million in 2007 to 237.5 million now. The number employed has gone from 144.2 million to 139.5. That’s 11.5 million citizens out of work but ready, willing and able.
So tell me why we have 20 million illegal invaders in our nation again? Sure, some of them have jobs. But every one of those jobs is one that an American could be doing. It is an outrage that we allow our nation to be overrun with illegal Mexican invaders while our citizens are out of work and days or weeks away from being evicted and living under a highway overpass.
People tell me we can’t deport ‘em all. My retort is that we don’t have to. Drive a bus with armed security to every chicken plant and strawberry field in America. Pick ‘em up, fingerprint ‘em electronically, bus ‘em to the border. Make clear that if they get caught again in the United States they’ll do five years at hard labor, no possibility of early release, before being deported again. Third time, 10 years. And so on.
It’ll be a week before they all leave on their own, except the gang bangers, of which there are many. Those we’ll have to actually go round up the hard way.
There’s your employment problem.
Who was it that gave a speech yesterday exhorting us to “understand” all those illegal invaders in our country, let them keep the jobs that Americans could be doing, and not kick them out again?
That would be President Obama, I think…..
Hmmm…
Posted in Debt, Economic Crisis, Economy, Job Losses, Jobs, Money, Unemployment, Unemployment Benefits, Unemployment Insurance |
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Non-Farm Payrolls 6/4: OUCH
Posted by Karl Denninger
Total nonfarm payroll employment grew by 431,000 in May, reflecting the hiring of 411,000 temporary employees to work on Census 2010, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Private-sector employment changed little (+41,000).
So much for the “strong” (+200,000) private sector job growth that everyone was expecting.
The futures reaction was instantaneous and violent – southbound.
There has never been a so-called “V-shaped” recovery where we only managed to add 40,000 jobs. Oh, and of that “+40,000″ about five times as many were fictional jobs created by the “birth-death” model in the establishment survey. I ignore that survey in my tracking for the simple reason that the government can (and does) basically add whatever it wants to print in their “black box” and proves up nothing on it – nor does it expose its methodology.
Instead I use the household survey, and once again present my two “tracking graphs”:
The annualized number continues to show improvement but has failed to cross zero and the monthly change is barely positive. Given that Census hiring has peaked and we will in the coming months see Census layoffs this is bad news.
What’s worse is here:
Eek. After several months of improvement in the “not in labor force” number, showing that people were re-entering the labor force seeking jobs, this month showed new deterioration in that leading indicator of hiring.
That is, we once again have more people leaving the workforce despite May being one of the two months that typically record big gains in the labor force due to graduation of both High Schools and Colleges, and the “forward expectations” of “about to be new graduates” entering the workforce.
This is an insanely weak report all things considered, and is entirely out of character with the claim of a “V” shaped recovery, or alternatively, a claim that the “stock crash” in 2008 and 2009 was reflective not of weakness in the underlying economy but rather a “pure financial panic.”
This report ought to stuff a rag in the mouths of those who have been running that crap. The fact of the matter is that there has been no meaningful turn in the employment situation and in the coming months you’re going to see those 400,000 Census Jobs go back into the ranks of the unemployed.
With policy capacity to intervene essentially exhausted it will soon become evident to the “talking heads” that all we did by refusing to admit to the insane amount of overcapacity in the economy and the outright fraud served up by our “financial institutions” was to blow somewhere north of $3 trillion attempting to reinflate a popped balloon, meaning that we no longer have effective policy tools to deal with the underlying rot that we refused to excise, and as such we are now consigned to live with the consequences – and they won’t be pretty.
Buckle up folks, the road ahead is quite rough.
In Summary:
410 Jobs attributable to the Census (which are temporary federal employment)
220 Jobs attributable to the Birth/Death Model
330 People Falling off the Rolls and No Longer Counted
Nearly 1 Million Fake Jobs
Back those out and the REAL number here is NEGATIVE. 226,000 JOBS LOST
Expect to see headlines that scream:
443 Thousand New Jobs! Unemployment Drops to 9.7%
The government fraud continues to obfuscate truth and reality from the people. Don’t be fooled. You’re being lied to.
